Artificial neural network simulation for prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the River Ramganga,Ganges Basin,India     

Mohd Yawar Ali Khan  Fuqiang Tian  Faisal Hasan  Govind Joseph Chakrapani 《国际泥沙研究》2019,34(2):95-107

The relation between the water discharge (Q) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of the River Ramganga at Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh, in the Himalayas, has been modeled using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The current study validates the practical capability and usefulness of this tool for simulating complex nonlinear, real world, river system processes in the Himalayan scenario. The modeling approach is based on the time series data collected from January to December (2008–2010) for Q and SSC. Three ANNs (T1-T3) with different network configurations have been developed and trained using the Levenberg Marquardt Back Propagation Algorithm in the Matlab routines. Networks were optimized using the enumeration technique, and, finally, the best network is used to predict the SSC values for the year 2011. The values thus obtained through the ANN model are compared with the observed values of SSC. The coefficient of determination (R²), for the optimal network was found to be 0.99. The study not only provides insight into ANN modeling in the Himalayan river scenario, but it also focuses on the importance of understanding a river basin and the factors that affect the SSC, before attempting to model it. Despite the temporal variations in the study area, it is possible to model and successfully predict the SSC values with very simplistic ANN models.  相似文献   

地震活动性总体参量Rt在北京及邻区地震预测中的应用     

岳晓媛  武安绪  马梁 《地震地磁观测与研究》2019,40(6):28-34

采用地震活动性总体参量R_t方法,研究北京及邻区R_t值在中等地震前随时间的变化特征,分析跟踪地震发生前研究区域地震活动状态,探讨中等地震孕震过程的异常信息的变化特征。结果显示:当R_t值大于阈值0.84时,研究区域地震活动状态比较稳定,发生中等地震的可能性较小;反之,表明地震活动处于不稳定状态,具有发生中等地震的危险。检验R_t值的地震预测效能,预测效果比较理想,利用地震活动状态参量R_t研究北京及邻区地震活动状态,判定中等地震发生的风险性,具有一定预测意义。  相似文献   

室内用户语义位置预测研究     

王培晓  王海波  傅梦颖  吴升 《地球信息科学学报》2018,20(12):1689-1698

位置预测技术可以提前预知用户下一时刻的位置,在基于位置的服务（Location-based Service,LBS）领域中发挥着极其重要的作用。现有的位置预测技术大多仅使用用户的地理轨迹,仅使用地理轨迹挖掘出来的用户移动模式易受地理特性的限制缺乏深层次的语义信息。本文基于某商场群体用户的室内轨迹数据和语义信息预测用户下一个时刻语义位置。语义位置预测包括停留区域识别、停留区域语义匹配、语义位置建模。在停留区域识别阶段,为减少室内停留时间不固定对停留区域识别的影响,本研究提出了一种新型的时空凝聚层次聚类算法（Spatial-Temporal Agglomerative Nesting, ST-AGNES),该算法具有思想简单、超参数少、自动生成聚类个数等优点。在语义匹配阶段,引入了吸引度规则,充分利用停留区域所有轨迹点与室内高密度的商铺名称信息做匹配。最后,采用长短型记忆神经网络模型（Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM）挖掘群体用户的语义位置模式并预测用户未来的语义位置,实验预测正确率达到61.3%。  相似文献   

灰色稳健总体最小二乘估计及高铁路基变形预测     

陈洋  文鸿雁  覃辉  王清涛  周吕 《大地测量与地球动力学》2018,38(2):140-146

最小二乘估计和部分变量误差模型的总体最小二乘估计不具备抵御粗差的能力。鉴于粗差可能同时出现在灰色白化微分方程的观测值和系数矩阵中，本文提出基于IGGⅢ抗差方案的部分变量总体最小二乘稳健估计。结合仿真数据和高铁路基观测数据，系统地比较稳健最小二乘、部分变量总体最小二乘、本文算法参数估计结果和算法稳定性。结果表明，本文算法预测精度高，可以应用到高铁路基沉降预测中。  相似文献   

Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM     

Qiong Xia  Enbo Wei 《大气与海洋》2018,56(4):240-253

ABSTRACT

A dipole structure appears in the sea surface height off the central coast of Vietnam during boreal summer in the South China Sea. This dipole, which possesses a chlorophyll signature associated with higher phytoplankton concentrations arising from nutrient upwelling, is important for the productivity of local fisheries. Multi-satellite sea level anomalies are used to investigate the life cycle of the dipole structure. By applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the third EOF mode (EOF 3) is found to represent the major variations of the dipole structure. By removing the temporal noise of EOF 3, a South China Sea dipole index is defined. This index captures the life cycle of the dipole including its generation, mature strength, and final termination. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional forecasts are generated using a statistical forecasting method that combines singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method. The appearance of the dipole structure can be predicted with an accuracy of 78% at one-month lead times and an accuracy of 61% at one-year lead times.  相似文献   

黔北正安地区五峰组—龙马溪组页岩气地质特征及有利区预测     

贺永忠  向坤鹏  安亚运  易成兴  杨忠琴  于宁 《中国地质调查》2020,7(3):21-29

为明确黔北正安地区上奥陶统五峰组至下志留统龙马溪组的页岩气地质特征,充分应用页岩气地质调查、重磁电、二维地震、地质调查井及测试分析等工作方法,开展黔北正安地区1:5万页岩气基础地质调查,对五峰组至龙马溪组富有机质页岩的分布、沉积环境、有机地球化学、岩石矿物、储集性能及含气性等特征进行分析研究,结果表明: 研究区五峰组—龙马溪组富有机质页岩为深水陆棚相沉积,主要分布有安场向斜、斑竹向斜和泥高向斜,厚度14.5~55 m,埋深0~3 200 m; 有机碳(TOC)含量1.0%~4.0%,有机质镜质体反射率(R_o)为1.82%~2.23%,有机质类型以Ⅰ型干酪根为主; 岩石主要由石英、长石和黏土矿物组成,脆性矿物含量高,一般大于50%; 孔隙度为2.03%~3.89%,渗透率为0.35×10^-5~1.86×10^-5μm²,表现为低孔、特低渗的特征; 最高含气量为2.88 m³/t,显示出较好的含气性特征。综合分析和评价圈出3个页岩气聚集有利区,分别为安场区块、斑竹区块和泥高区块,这为研究区页岩气进一步勘探开发指明了方向。  相似文献   

青藏高原及邻区未来地震活动性趋势数值分析          下载免费PDF全文

董培育  石耀霖  程惠红  乔学军 《地球物理学报》2020,63(3):1155-1169

区域中长期地震危险性数值分析研究,需要对其初始构造应力场有所了解,但目前以及未来一段时期内仍无法直接观测到深部孕震层区域的应力场状况.本文首先基于岩石库仑-摩尔破裂准则,利用青藏高原及邻区百年历史范围内的强震信息,来反演估算该区域的初始应力场.然后,考虑区域构造应力加载及强震造成的应力扰动共同作用,重现了历史强震的发展过程.然而对于初始应力场的反演估算,本文仅能给出区域其上下限的极限值,并不能唯一确定.因此,采用Monte Carlo随机法,进行大量独立的随机试验计算,生成数千种有差异的区域初始应力场模型,且保证每种模型都能令历史强震有序发生,但未来应力场演化过程不尽相同.最后,将数千种模型在未来时间段内的危险性预测结果集成为数理统计结果,据此给出了区域未来的地震危险性概率分布图.初步结果显示未来强震危险性概率较高地区集中在巴颜喀拉块体边界及鲜水河断裂带地区.  相似文献   

The Characteristics and Related Problems of the Orbits Around the Earth-Moon Libration Points     

Liu Lin  Tang Jing-shi  Hou Xi-yun 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2019,43(2):278-291

Due to the specific dynamics, the probes located at the halo orbits or Lissajous orbits around the Earth-Moon collinear libration point L₁ or L₂ are always studied in the synodic system to understand their trajectories. In fact, they are also orbiting the Earth in a distant Keplerian ellipse. Because of their intrinsic orbital instability, in the orbit prediction the initial errors propagate more prominently than those of the normal orbiting satellites, this requires special attention in the orbit design, maneuver, and control. Despite of all this, they are similar to the normal orbiting satellites in orbit determination and hardly require other special attentions. In this paper, the quantitative results of error propagation under the unstable dynamics, together with the theoretical analysis are presented. The results of precise orbit determination and short-arc orbit predictions are also shown, and compared with the results from the Beijing Aerospace Control Center.  相似文献   

渤海夏季环流的高分辨率海浪-潮汐-环流耦合模式研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

夏长水  郭景松  王关锁  陈振华  匡晓迪 《海洋学报(英文版)》2019,38(1):32-37

The Bohai Sea is a shallow semi-enclosed inner sea with an average depth of 18 m and is located at the west of the northern Yellow Sea. The climatological circulation pattern in summer of the Bohai Sea is studied by using a wave-tide-circulation coupled model. The simulated temperature and the circulation agree with the observation well. The result shows that the circulation pattern of the Bohai Sea is jointly influenced by the tidal residual current, wind and baroclinic current. There exists an obvious density current along the temperature front from the west part of the Liaodong Bay to the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary. In the Liaodong Bay there exists a clockwise gyre in the area north to the 40°N. While in the area south to the 40°N the circulation shows a two-gyre structure, the flow from the offshore area of the Huanghe Estuary to the Liaodong Bay splits into two branches in the area between 39°N and 40°N. The west branch turns into north-west and forms an anti-clockwise gyre with the south-westward density current off the west of the Liaodong Bay. The east branch turns to the east and forms a clockwise gyre with the flow along the east coast of the Liaodong Bay. The forming mechanism of the circulation is also discussed in this paper.  相似文献   

Inter- and intra-annual trend analysis of water level and flow in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganjiang River,China     

Di Zhu  Yue Ben  Xinfa Xu 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(12):2128-2141

ABSTRACT

The Ganjiang River is the largest tributary of Poyang Lake in China, and its hydrological regime variation greatly affects the utilization of regional water resources and the ecological environment of the lake. In this study, a novel trend analysis method, the Moving Average over Shifting Horizon (MASH), was applied to investigate the inter- and intra-annual trends of flow and water level from 1976 to 2016 at the Xiajiang and the Waizhou hydrological stations in the Ganjiang River. The Significant Change Rate Method (SCRM) was proposed to determine the MASH averaging parameters. The trend analysis results show a statistically significant decrease in water level series throughout the year and the relationship of flow and water level have changed greatly at the Waizhou station. The sediment load reduction, large-scale sand mining and water level decrease of Poyang Lake are identified as the main causes for the water level decrease.  相似文献